AP Top 25 Reality Check: Pouring caution on that optimism

AP Top 25 Reality Check: Pouring caution on that optimism

Low expectations rarely disappoint.

That's not to speak your favorite team will fail to exist up to the word of honour that comes accompanied by landing a spot inside The Associated Press preseason Top 25 college football poll presented by Regions Bank that was released Monday.

But numbers propose it is finest to sprinkle a inside good physical condition amount of caution on that optimism while you gearwheel up for the 2022 season.

Lear year was mostly volatile for the Top 25, accompanied by 14 teams that started the hour dated ranked finishing unranked. From 2010-20, on average, 9.5 teams that appeared inside the preseason Top 25 finished unranked — concerning 38% of the picks. During that time, the most was 12 inside 2010.

In the preseason top 10 last year, trio teams (Texas A&M, Iowa State accompanied by every one one other accompanied by North Carolina) failed to build it into the final poll. That's dual the signify (1.5) from 2010-2020.

Time to temper expectations for the preseason Top 25 this hour dated — except for Alabama.

No. 1 Alabama (13-2 last season)

Opener: vs. Utah State, Sept. 3.

Reality check: The surest bet inside sports is the Crimson Tide, which has only missed the playoff once. Alabama has not finished outer external outside the top 10 since 2007, bus Nick Saban's earliest season. No spring to exist convinced by it's happening this season.

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No. 2 Ohio State (11-2)

Opener: vs. No. 5 Notre Dame, Sept. 3.

Reality check: The Buckeyes hired former Oklahoma State defending coordinator Jim Knowles to fasten a defence that was poorly exposed opposed to their finest opponents. QB C.J. Stroud, WR Jaxson Smith-Njigba accompanied by every one one other accompanied by a potent offense inside all likelihood build Ohio State flop-proof, though.

No. 3 Georgia (14-1)

Opener: vs. No. 11 Oregon inside Atlanta, Sept. 3.

Reality check: Most of last season's all-time great defence is now inside the NFL. The Bulldogs are excessively talented to lay clasp of a large step backward, nevertheless assuming Alabama-level consistency from some team is a a large amount to ask.

No. 4 Clemson (10-3)

Opener: vs. Georgia Tech inside Atlanta, Sept. 5.

Reality check: Coming off their earliest non-ACC championship hour dated inside septet years, the Tigers are maybe the most intriguing team inside the country. Clemson has place of set of two new coordinators accompanied by every one one other accompanied by a former five-star quarterback (D.J. Uiagalelei) trying to recuperate from a puzzlingly poverty-stricken season. Voters are leaning inside the way of last hour dated actuality a blip for Dabo Swinney's team accompanied by every one one other accompanied by not the begin of a trend.

No. 5 Notre Dame (11-2)

Opener: at No. 2 Ohio State, Sept. 3.

Reality check: The Fighting Irish have established lofty standards accompanied by five unswerving 10-win seasons, nevertheless bus Marcus Freeman's earliest hour dated while Brian Kelly's replacement has a a large amount of transition-year vibes.

No. 6 Texas A&M (8-4)

Opener: vs. Sam Houston, Sept. 3.

Reality check: The Aggies won the offseason accompanied by the No. 1 recruiting class accompanied by every one one other accompanied by bus Jimbo Fisher going off on his former boss, Saban. They are excessively a team relying laboriously on sophomores accompanied by every one one other accompanied by those five-star freshmen accompanied by every one one other accompanied by one accompanied by no indeed indeed established starting quarterback or big-play receivers.

No. 7 Utah (10-4)

Opener: at Florida, Sept. 3.

Reality check: The Utes are coming off their earliest Pac-12 title accompanied by every one one other accompanied by Rose Bowl appearance, accompanied by every one one other accompanied by have sufficient pieces spine to do it again. But repeating a magical hour dated is difficult for the vast majority of programs that don't regularly sign top-10 recruiting classes.

No. 8 Michigan (12-2)

Opener: vs. Colorado State, Sept. 3.

Reality check: The Wolverines broke into with every one other accompanied by not here of for bus Jim Harbaugh accompanied by a Big Ten title accompanied by every one one other accompanied by victory over Ohio State inside 2021. Now, accompanied by place of set of two new coordinators accompanied by every one one other accompanied by a defence replacing trio first-round preliminary report picks, a repeat seems unlikely. An experienced offense accompanied by every one one other accompanied by accommodating scheme gives Michigan a high floor.

No. 9 Oklahoma (11-2)

Opener: vs. UTEP, Sept. 3.

Reality check: New bus (Brent Venables), new quarterback (Dillon Gabriel) accompanied by every one one other accompanied by additional uncertainty inside Norman than there has been inside years. The Sooners have been one of the most reliable teams inside the country for place of set of two decades, finishing unranked only twice. But turnover regularly comes accompanied by volatility.

No. 10 Baylor (12-2)

Opener: vs. Albany, Sept. 3.

Reality check: Another one of 2021′s astonishment breakout teams, the defending Big 12 champions hope to retain it up accompanied by strong dash play. Still, the Big 12 is all concerning winning near games accompanied by every one one other accompanied by the difference inside the centre of playing for the title accompanied by every one one other accompanied by finishing fourth is thin.

No. 11 Oregon (10-4)

Opener: vs. No. 3 Georgia inside Atlanta, Sept. 3.

Reality check: Another extremely ranked team accompanied by a new bus accompanied by every one one other accompanied by quarterback. Former Georgia DC Dan Lanning inherits the most talented roster inside the Pac-12. Transfer Bo Nix will try to convey stability to the quarterback position, which was not really his thing at Auburn.

No. 12 Oklahoma State (12-2)

Opener: vs. Central Michigan, Sept. 1.

Reality check: The Cowboys, a team buoyed by excellent seniors — mostly on defence — inside 2022, will need to relax laboriously on its experienced offense. QB Spencer Sanders has had a lengthy career filled accompanied by peaks accompanied by every one one other accompanied by valleys.

No. 13 North Carolina State (9-3)

Opener: at East Carolina, Sept. 3.

Reality check: The Wolfpack enter one of the most extremely anticipated seasons for the program inside recent history, accompanied by a loaded defence accompanied by every one one other accompanied by celestial body quarterback inside Devin Leary. This is excessively program that has one double-digit victory hour dated — ever.

No. 14 USC (5-7)

Opener: vs. Rice, Sept. 3.

Reality check: The celestial body ability at USC has not been this bright inside a while accompanied by bus Lincoln Riley, QB Caleb Williams accompanied by every one one other accompanied by WR Jordan Addison providing hope for an immediate turnaround. But the game is still concerning blocking accompanied by every one one other accompanied by tackling accompanied by every one one other accompanied by there are prosperity of questions concerning the Trojans' ability to do either well.

No. 15 Michigan State (11-2)

Opener: vs. Western Michigan, Sept. 2.

Reality check: Coach Mel Tucker parlayed the Spartans' surprising surge last year into an enormous accord accompanied by every one one other accompanied by the elevated expectations that go accompanied by it. Will regression go nearer for the Spartans inside 2022?

No. 16 Miami (7-5)

Opener: vs. Bethune-Cookman, Sept. 4.

Reality check: The U. brought spine hometown courageous male Mario Cristobal to assist build the program spine to its powerhouse past. He's got a pro likelihood inside QB Tyler Van Dyke to labour with, nevertheless this is a a large amount of optimism for a team that has only finished ranked on one instance inside the last quartet seasons.

No. 17 Pitt (11-3)

Opener: vs. West Virginia, Sept. 1.

Reality check: Coming off an ACC title, the Panthers are hoping USC transfer Kedon Slovis tin replicate Kenny Pickett's stellar 2021. He will have to do it lacking the departed Jordan Addison. Pitt hasn't finished consecutive seasons ranked since 1983.

No. 18 Wisconsin (9-4)

Opener: vs. Illinois State, Sept. 3.

Reality check: In trio of the last quartet seasons, the Badgers have started the hour dated ranked accompanied by every one one other accompanied by finished it unranked. The formula of celestial body running spine (Braelon Allen) accompanied by every one one other accompanied by staunch defence appears to exist inside place again, nevertheless tin QB Graham Mertz eventually find his blue-chip form?

No. 19 Arkansas (9-4)

Opener: vs. No. 23 Cincinnati, Sept. 3.

Reality check: Life inside the SEC West is hard. The Razorbacks were overachievers last year, nevertheless things tin flip fast. Especially facing a scheme that excessively includes Cincinnati accompanied by every one one other accompanied by No. 25 BYU accompanied by a rebuilt defense.

No. 20 Kentucky (10-3)

Opener: at Miami (Ohio), Sept. 3.

Reality check: Kentucky has found favourable consequence inside bullying teams up front. Turnover on both lines could build that tougher this season, flat while QB Will Levis' NFL likelihood status rises. The last hour dated the Wildcats finished ranked inside consecutive seasons: 1977.

No. 21 Mississippi (10-3)

Opener: vs. Troy, Sept. 3.

Reality check: After the earliest 10-win constant hour dated inside educational organization history, Ole Miss bus Lane Kiffin dived spine into the transfer portal to rebuild his offense accompanied by QB Jaxson Dart, RB Zach Evans accompanied by every one one other accompanied by OT Mason Brooks. Do the pieces go nearer accompanied by every one one other on one instance additional for the Portal King?

No. 22 Wake Forest (11-3)

Opener: vs. VMI, Sept. Sept. 1.

Reality check: The Demon Deacons have 13 starters returning from one of the finest teams inside educational organization history. But while good while Wake was last year, the defence fell apart late accompanied by every one one other accompanied by now the Deacs will have to build do for an indefinite stint lacking QB Sam Hartman.

No. 23 Cincinnati (13-1)

Opener: at No. 19 Arkansas, Sept. 3.

Reality check: Any residual doubts concerning last year's Bearcats were buried on NFL preliminary report night. Cincinnati had nine players selected, including five inside the top 100. That's a summit of difference-makers for some program not named Alabama to replace.

No. 24 Houston (12-2)

Opener: at UTSA, Sept. 3.

Reality check: The Cougars filled the word of honour of the Dana Holgorsen hire last year by playing for the American Athletic Conference title accompanied by every one one other accompanied by are poised to exist this season's G5 King. They excessively face a tricky early scheme that includes Texas Tech, accompanied by every one one other accompanied by have to replace place of set of two big-time playmakers inside DB Marcus Jones accompanied by every one one other accompanied by DL Logan Hall.

No. 25 BYU (10-3)

Opener: at USF, Sept. 3.

Reality check: The Cougars won 10 games accompanied by a young team last year, which bodes well for this season. But, oh that schedule. BYU's last hour dated while an self-governing earlier to joining the Big 12 includes games opposed to No. 10 Baylor, No. 11 Oregon, No. 5 Notre Dame, No. 19 Arkansas, Boise State accompanied by every one one other accompanied by Stanford.

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Follow Ralph D. Russo at https://twitter.com/ralphDrussoAP accompanied by every one one other accompanied by hear at http://www.appodcasts.com

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More AP college football: https://apnews.com/hub/college-football accompanied by every one one other accompanied by https://twitter.com/AP_Top25

AP Top 25 Reality Check: Pouring caution on that optimism