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The Number That Puts Vladimir Putin Risk

The number that puts Vladimir Putin at risk.

The Russians are not winning the war inside Ukraine with every one other accompanied by they may flat exist losing.

Neither option is good for Russian leader Vladimir Putin, which he surely knows well, both while a former soldierold hand of the Cold War with every one other accompanied by while a student of Russian history.

The last hour dated the Russians lost a war was inside Afghanistan throughout the 1980s.


After a fast victory when they invaded the nation inside 1979, the Soviets faced a countrywide insurgency that wasnt mainly effective at earliest since the Russians completely controlled the airspace.

In an echo of some of the dilemmas that President Joe Biden faces today, the Reagan management feared a possible nuclear confrontation accompanied by the Soviets with every one other accompanied by was at first reluctant to upper limb the Afghan rebels accompanied by anti-aircraft weapons.

By 1986, reluctance among President Reagans officials to upper limb the Afghan resistance accompanied by weapons that strength actually assist them to come first in the war had evaporated.

The CIA armed the Afghans accompanied by Stinger anti-aircraft missiles that ended the Soviets air superiority with every one other accompanied by greatly increased the Afghans capacity to inflict significant losses on Soviet forces on the battlefield.

Realizing they were losing the war, the Soviets withdrew from Afghanistan inside February 1989 with every one other accompanied by installed a puppet Afghan communist management that collapsed trio years later, following the Soviet Union had itself expired.

The official Soviet demise toll throughout the Afghan War, which lasted additional than nine years, was around 15,000 soldiers.

It is therefore completely telling that the Russians may have by that hour dated lost while numerous 15,000 soldiers inside fair one month inside Ukraine, according to estimates specified to CNN by older NATO officials.

When the Soviet military departed Afghanistan inside 1989, the countries with every one other accompanied by populations of Eastern Europe -- at that hour dated under varying degrees of the Soviet yoke -- took note.

If the feared Soviet armed force couldnt come first in a war on its own borders opposed to Afghan guerrilla forces, what did it speak concerning its ability to jurisdiction the fates of East Germany, Hungary with every one other accompanied by Poland? The lack of success of the Soviet war inside Afghanistan hammered a colossus pin into the coffin of the Soviet empire.


Its not an accident the Berlin Wall fell fair months later, opening up East Germany to the West.

This was arguably the hinge event inside Putins mature life.

He was at that hour dated a KGB officer stationed inside East Germany.

When Putin sought instructions concerning what he should do from a Soviet military unit, he was told, "Moscow is silent.

" Since then, Putin has been trying to reverse Moscows silence accompanied by the goal of restoring while numerous elements of Russias former glory while he can.

Just while the Soviets were undone by their mislaying of the Afghan War, so excessively was the Romanov monarchy undone by its military defeats inside the early 20th century, which ended the Romanovs three-century reign over Russia.

Under the feckless leadership of Tsar Nicholas II, Russias disastrous show inside the Russo-Japanese War of 1905 was the earliest hour dated inside the modern epoch that an Asian ability had defeated a European one.

The mislaying of the Russo-Japanese war was in a short time compounded by Russias defeats throughout World War I.

Those losses, down accompanied by other factors, led to overthrow of Nicholas II inside 1917 with every one other accompanied by the subsequent rise of the Soviets.

By contrast, Joseph Stalin emerged victorious from World War II -- albeit at a very great cost of an estimated additional than 25 million Russian dead.

Known inside Russia while "the Great Patriotic War," this victory helped permit Stalin to carry on accompanied by being, well, Stalin -- a murderous dictator.

An edition of The Economist earlier this month declared "The Stalinization of Russia," which is surely Putins goal.


But its firm to exist neo-Stalinist if you are a loser -- with every one other accompanied by losing Ukraine isnt not here of the question for Putin.

This, of course, raises the possibility that US officials retain warning of, which is that backed into a corner, Putin strength use chemical or biotic weapons.

The use of nuclear weapons by Russia was too not ruled not here by Putins leader spokesman, Dimitry Peskov, when he spoke to CNNs Christiane Amanpour on Tuesday.

Putins war of selection inside Ukraine could lead him to a point where he uses weapons of pile destruction.

And flat then, he may still mislay the war.

This was surely not how Putin dreamed of restoring Russias glory, a fantasy that is fast turning into ashes -- fair while Putin has reduced the Ukrainian city of Mariupol to ashes.

What we know concerning North Koreas new ICBM.


North Korea has confirmed it tested a new sort of intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), its earliest long-range trial inside additional than quartet years with every one other accompanied by marking a potential new epoch of geographical confrontation.

North Korean condition media said on Friday that leader Kim Jong Un had straight guided the launch of the weapon, known while the Hwasong-17, its most state-of-the-art to date.

The report described the launch while a "powerful nuclear war deterrent" with every one other accompanied by quoted Kim while saying the countrys forces were "fully ready" for potential military confrontation accompanied by the United States.

The enormous weapon could, at least theoretically, place the entire US mainland inside range of a North Korean nuclear warhead, nevertheless theres a a large amount of unknowns concerning the missiles ability to deliver a nuclear payload on target.

Heres a look at the missile launched Thursday.

What is the missiles range? North Korean condition media Friday released pictures showing the massive, liquid-fueled missile actuality fired from a mobile launcher at Pyongyang International Airport.

The report from the Korean Central News Agency said the missile hit a greatest altitude of 6,248.

5 kilometers (3,905 miles), flew a distance of 1,090 kilometers (681 miles) with every one other accompanied by had a flying hour dated of 68 minutes earlier to it "landed correctly inside the planned waters" in the centre of the Korean Peninsula with every one other accompanied by Japan.


That closely matched the estimates of Japanese monitors, who said the missile fell within Japans exclusive monetary zone, concerning 150 kilometers (93 miles) the occident of Oshima Peninsula inside Hokkaido, Japans northernmost main island.

That is the highest with every one other accompanied by longest duration North Korean missile trial on record.

Analysts said it was fired inside a lofted trajectory, enabling it to retain away from flying over some other country.

But they noted if it were fired inside the normal, flatter trajectory of an ICBM, it would have the entire continental United States within its reach.

"This is the longest-range missile North Korea has at some time tested," said Jeffrey Lewis, a weapons expert with every one other accompanied by professor at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies.

Can this missile convey a nuclear warhead? The Hwasong-17 is certainly large sufficient to convey one, or maybe some nuclear weapons, experts say.

"What this really represents is North Koreas steady forward movement in the direction of the ability to place multiple nuclear warheads on targets inside the United States inside the event of a war," Lewis said.


But critically, forward movement doesnt signify the real ability to do so.

While Thursdays trial showed the possible range of the missile, experts do not know what sort of payload it was carrying.

Because the heaviness of the payload ultimately affects how a lengthy way a missile tin fly, observers cannot know accompanied by certainty the real range of the missile lacking this information.

Can North Korea place nuclear warheads on target? Experts note that Pyongyang has not shown whether it is competent of building a system that will permit the nuclear warhead to survive reentry into Earths atmosphere.

Because ICBMs are report into space, exist fond of space shuttles or space capsules, the warhead must exist intelligent to withstand the fiery journey into and not here of the outer layers of Earths air lacking burning up.

"Im someone who thinks that they inside all likelihood would (survive reentry).

There are some people who are somewhat doubtful concerning that," Lewis said.

But that is something North Korea tin learn from tests exist fond of Thursdays, he said.

Whats following inside North Koreas missile program? Leader Kim Jong Un has laid not here an ambitious scheme to present with North Korea a credible nuclear deterrent, meaning an arsenal strong sufficient to stop some adversary, most notably the US, from attacking.

According to Fridays KCNA report, Kim said Thursdays trial affirmed that the planned forces of North Korea "are completely prepared to rigorously curb with every one other accompanied by include some dangerous military attempts of the US imperialists.

" Lewis said the North Korean leader is "marching through" a lengthy list of weapon modernizations laid not here additional than a year ago.

"(Kim) said these are all the things that North Korea is going to do with every one other accompanied by that included a multiple warhead ICBM.

a solid-propellant ICBM, launching a military satellite, with every one other accompanied by flat even putting a nuclear-powered submarine to sea," Lewis said.

"I dont believe hes going to place an extremity to until that list is completed," Lewis said.


Previously, North Korea has announced plans to grow the accuracy of its missiles with every one other accompanied by grow the range up to 15,000 kilometers (9,320 miles). All About Trends

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